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Now what does it means is that after a long time India will have a very stable government. For a long time, India has seen only coalitions and we had assumed that we have moved to a coalition era where it will be very difficult for any single party to go pass the halfway mark in parliament. This time, the BJP has done it surprisingly. Everyone expected them to win but no one expected this margin of victory. A Government which is a single party government or even if it is a coalition where a single party has a single majority in parliament will behave very very differently from a coalition where the lead constituent is dependent on smaller allies to keep the government stable. And I think we are going to see a lot of that.
Earlier on yesterday, we saw Sensex hitting almost 25,000 mark. Later the market came down in the second half of the day, primarily because everyone have booked profits. But what financial analysts are predicting we are on the beginning of a secular bull run so we will see the market climbing steadily. Of course, it also means that we need to see significant improvement in some of the fundamentals but if you look at most emerging markets, they have done quite good this year at least for the first half of the year. India has been laggard as far as emerging markets are concerned. I think its no longer going to be a laggard. It may actually set a trend. At this moment if Rupee appreciates then it means export can become less competitive. Rupee can turn stronger provided if we address lot of supply side issues, if we address issues related to manufacturing, we make sure that there is a sort of revival in manufacturing in export led businesses. And then you might not be competing on price, you will be competing on other factors though price will still be important. I think RBI has enough fire-power to make sure that Rupee doesn't go below 50 mark.
I think we are going to see two broad aspect of changes. First will be administrative. I think the speed of the decision making will be much faster as you have a leader who does have a certain degree of certitude if you look at how he function as Chief Minister of Gujarat. He function with a certitude. If he brings that quality of certitude to the Prime Minister Office that will be mean faster decisions and more decisive actions by the Government. Though it is too early to forecast how Narendra Modi will function as the Prime Minister of India. The second thing would be that a sense of hope will come in the nation right now based on NDA Government's last report card. The Vajpayee Government of 1999-2004 was a very reformist Government. They did lot of interesting things Dis-investing was one significant thing. The Telecom Revolution really took off when these guys were in charge. So, we might see lot of these things during this tenure as well. I am eager to see how the different portfolio In-charges will be selected. It would be encouraging to see if non-political candidates are opted for some key positions like Finance or Railways. Well, time will tell what is in store for the nation but anyway this is a hopeful time for the nation.
